**Course: Math 208X, Elementary Probability and Statistics, Spring 2020**

**Prerequisite:** Math 118 or Math 125.

**Course Content:** Descriptive statistics, probability, discrete and continuous random variables, expectation and variance, sampling, Central Limit Theorem, estimation, hypothesis testing, correlation and regression. Emphasis on health science.

**Syllabus:** here*. Last update:* 25 November 2019

**Instructor:** Steven Heilman, stevenmheilman(@-symbol)gmail.com

**Office Hours:** Mondays, 9AM-11AM, KAP 406G

**Lecture Meeting Time/Location:** Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, 11AM-1150AM, VKC 102

**TA: **... (@-symbol)usc.edu

**You are not required to buy a textbook**. Free lecture notes are provided below.

**Recommended Textbook:** D. Freedman, R. Pisani, and R. Purves, __Statistics__, Fourth edition.

**First Midterm:** Friday, February 14, 11AM-1150AM, VKC 102

**Second Midterm:** Friday, March 27, 11AM-1150AM, VKC 102

**Final Exam:** Wednesday, May 6, 11AM-1PM, Location TBD

**Other Resources:** The Math Center is located in 263 KAP and is open Monday-Friday from 8am to 7pm on most days. It is primarily run by math graduate students here at USC.

**Email Policy:**

- My email address for this course is stevenmheilman@gmail.com
- It is your responsibility to make sure you are receiving emails from stevenmheilman@gmail.com , and they are not being sent to your spam folder.
- Do NOT email me with questions that can be answered from the syllabus.
- Homework questions sent to me by email will be answered altogether in the form of a "digest." I will get to every question, but I cannot reply to every email. This digest will be sent out typically two days before the homework is due. So, one digest will answer online homework questions on Sunday, and another digest will answer quiz questions around Tuesday.

**Exam Procedures**: Students must bring their USCID cards to the midterms and to the final exam. Phones must be turned off. Cheating on an exam results in a score of zero on that exam. Exams can be regraded at most 15 days after the date of the exam. This policy extends to homeworks as well. All students are expected to be familiar with the USC Student Conduct Code. (See also here.)

Disability Services: If you are registered with disability services, I would be happy to discuss this at the beginning of the course. Any student requesting accommodations based on a disability is required to register with Disability Services and Programs (DSP) each semester. A letter of verification for approved accommodations can be obtained from DSP. Please be sure the letter is delivered to me as early in the semester as possible. DSP is located in 301 STU and is open 8:30am-5:00pm, Monday through Friday.

https://dsp.usc.edu/

213-740-0776 (phone)

213-740-6948 (TDD only)

213-740-8216 (fax)

ability@usc.edu

Discrimination, sexual assault, and harassment are not tolerated by the university. You are encouraged to report any incidents to the *Office of Equity and Diversity* http://equity.usc.edu/ or to the *Department of Public Safety* http://capsnet.usc.edu/department/department-public-safety/online-forms/contact-us. This is important for the safety whole USC community. Another member of the university community - such as a friend, classmate, advisor, or faculty member - can help initiate the report, or can initiate the report on behalf of another person. *The Center for Women and Men* http://www.usc.edu/student-affairs/cwm/ provides 24/7 confidential support, and the sexual assault resource center webpage sarc@usc.edu describes reporting options and other resources.

**Exam Resources**: Here is a page containing old exams for a course similar to ours. The material on these exams might differ from the material on our exams.

**Homework Policy**:

- Homeworks are due on Fridays, at the
**beginning**of class. - Late homework is
**not accepted**. - If you still want to turn in your homework late, then the number of minutes late divided by ten will be deducted from the homework score. The exact deduction and rounding procedure is not guaranteed to be accurate.
- The
**lowest two**homework scores will be dropped. This policy is meant to account for illnesses, emergencies, etc. - You may not use the internet to try to find answers to homework problems.
- Do not submit homework via email.
- Collaboration on homeworks is allowed and encouraged.
- All homework assignments must be written by you, i.e. you cannot copy someone else`s solution verbatim.
- Reading the syllabus counts as one homework grade. In order to receive credit for reading the syllabus, you must read the syllabus by January 17, 5PM PST.

**Grading Policy:**

- The final course grade is weighted as the larger of the following two schemes.
- Scheme 1: class participation (3%), homework (17%), the first midterm (20%), the second midterm (25%), and the final (35%).
- Scheme 2: class participation (3%), homework (17%), the largest midterm grade (30%), and the final (50%)

- If you cannot attend one of the exams, you must notify me within the first two weeks of the start of the quarter. Later requests for rescheduling will most likely be denied.
- Class participation is not the same as attendance. I will never explicitly take attendance, but I will notice if someone is frequently absent. Things that increase your class participation grade include: asking good questions, paying attention in class, showing up on time or early to class, etc. Things that decrease your class participation grade include: excessive talking or disruptions during class, frequent absences, excessive texting/smartphone usage in class, frequent tardiness, etc.
- You must attend the final exam to pass the course.

Tentative Schedule: (This schedule may change slightly during the course.)

Week | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday |

1 | Jan 13: 1, Controlled Experiments | Jan 14 | Jan 15: 2, Observational Studies | Jan 16: | Jan 17: Read the syllabus due. Homework 1 due. 3, The Histogram |

2 | Jan 20: No class | Jan 21 | Jan 22: 4, Average and Standard Deviation | Jan 23: | Jan 24: Homework 2 due. 5, Normal Approximation |

3 | Jan 27: 6, Measurement Error | Jan 28 | Jan 29: 8, Correlation | Jan 30: | Jan 31: Homework 3 due. 9, Correlation |

4 | Feb 3: 10, Regression | Feb 4 | Feb 5: 11, Regression Error | Feb 6 | Feb 7: 12, Regression Line |

5 | Feb 10: 13.1, Sets and Probabilities | Feb 11 | Feb 12: 13.1, Sets and Probabilities | Feb 13 | Feb 14: Exam 1 |

6 | Feb 17: No class | Feb 18 | Feb 19: 13.2, Conditional Probability | Feb 20 | Feb 21: Homework 5 due. 13.3, Multiplication Rule |

7 | Feb 24: 14.2, Total Probability Theorem | Feb 25 | Feb 26: 13.4, Independence | Feb 27 | Feb 28: :Homework 6 due. 13.4, Independence |

8 | Mar 2: 15, Binomial Formula | Mar 3 | Mar 4: 16, Discrete Random Variables | Mar 5 | Mar 6: Homework 7 due. 17.1, Expected Value |

9 | Mar 9: 17.2, Variance | Mar 10 | Mar 11: 17, Joint PMF, Covariance, Variance | Mar 12: | Mar 13: Homework 8 due. 18, Central Limit Theorem |

10 | Mar 16: No class (spring break) | Mar 17 | Mar 18: No class (spring break) | Mar 19 | Mar 20: No class (spring break) |

11 | Mar 23: 18, Central Limit Theorem | Mar 24 | Mar 25: 18, Central Limit Theorem | Mar 26 | Mar 27: Exam 2 |

12 | Mar 30: 19, Sampling | Mar 31 | Apr 1: 20, Sampling | Apr 2: | Apr 3: Homework 9 due. 21, Sampling |

13 | Apr 6: 23, Sampling | Apr 7 | Apr 8: 23, Sampling | Apr 9 | Apr 10: Homework 10 due. 24,25, Applied Models |

14 | Apr 13: 26, Hypothesis Testing | Apr 14 | Apr 15: 26, Hypothesis Testing | Apr 16 | Apr 17: Homework 11 due. 27, Estimation |

15 | Apr 20: 27, Estimation | Apr 21 | Apr 22: 28, Chi-Squared | Apr 23 | Apr 24: Homework 12 due. 28, Chi-Squared |

16 | Apr 27: 29, Significance | Apr 28 | Apr 29: 29, Significance | Apr 30 | May 1: Homework 13 due. Review of course |

**Advice on succeeding in a math class:**

- Review the relevant course material before you come to lecture. Consider reviewing course material a week or two before the semester starts.
- When reading mathematics, use a pencil and paper to sketch the calculations that are performed by the author.
- Come to class with questions, so you can get more out of the lecture. Also, finish your homework at least two days before it is due, to alleviate deadline stress.
- Write a rough draft and a separate final draft for your homework. This procedure will help you catch mistakes.
- If you are having difficulty with the material or a particular homework problem, review Polya's Problem Solving Strategies, and come to office hours.

**Homework**

**Homework Digest**

**Supplementary Notes**